Home Affordability Is the Best It's Been in Nearly 4 Years | Ryan Hill Group
If you stopped running the numbers on buying a home sometime in the last two years, nobody can blame you. Mortgage rates climbed, monthly payments ballooned, and a lot of buyers across Naperville and the western suburbs made the very reasonable decision to wait. That made sense at the time.
What's changed is that three things are now working in buyers' favor simultaneously. The combination is producing the best affordability conditions we've seen in years, and buyers who haven't revisited their numbers lately may be in for a surprise.
Ryan Hill Group team lead Teresa Ryan walks through exactly what's shifted in the video below.
The 3% and 4% rates from 2020 and 2021 are not coming back anytime soon. Nobody is arguing otherwise. But rates have moved meaningfully lower from where they were at their worst.
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.52% as of June 11, 2026, down from 6.84% at the same point a year ago. At the end of February, rates briefly dropped below 6% for the first time in more than three years. Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, noted in April that rates were sitting at their lowest level across three consecutive spring homebuying seasons.
For buyers who last ran payment estimates in 2023 or early 2024, when rates were pushing 7.5%, the current environment looks noticeably different.
This piece of the story gets less airtime than it deserves.
Home prices in the western suburbs haven't fallen. Nobody is saying they have. But wages have grown faster than home prices have in recent months, which changes the practical picture for buyers. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun put it plainly: affordability is improving because of "lower mortgage rates and wage growth rising faster than home prices."
The numbers are specific. According to NAR data from October 2025, median family income rose 3.8% year over year while home price appreciation was running closer to 2%. When the paycheck grows faster than the price tag, buying moves back into reach even without a price correction.
This is the part most buyers haven't heard yet.
The qualifying income needed to purchase a median-priced home in the United States dropped to $93,696 in February 2026, according to NAR. In February 2025, that number was $101,616. That's nearly an $8,000 drop in the minimum income required just to qualify for a loan on a median-priced home.
At the same time, the national median family income climbed to $110,170. Put those two figures side by side, and what you see is a typical American family now earning well above what they'd need to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. That hadn't been consistently true for several years.
NAR's Housing Affordability Index reflects this shift. The index reached 113.7 in March 2026, up from 104.2 in March 2025. The index measures whether a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. Scores above 100 mean they do. Scores this high haven't been common since before the rate surge of 2022.
The national affordability story matters. But buyers shopping in Naperville and the western suburbs need local context on top of it.
According to MRED InfoSparks data, the median price for a detached single-family home in Naperville reached $700,000 in May 2026, reflecting just 0.9% year-over-year growth. That number does two things at once. It confirms that Naperville isn't a cheap market and never has been. And it confirms that price growth has nearly flatlined while wages have grown, which means the gap between what buyers earn and what they need to spend has narrowed.
On a home in the $600,000 to $700,000 range, the difference between the 7.5% peak rates of 2023 and today's rates translates to several hundred dollars per month. That's not a rounding error. For a lot of buyers who walked away because the payment didn't work, that gap is exactly what's brought them back to the table.
We're not going to put a specific number on your monthly payment here because your rate, down payment, property taxes, and insurance all move that figure significantly. What we will say is this: if you ran the math and it didn't work before, it's worth running again.
Better affordability is not the same thing as easy affordability. There's a real difference, and buyers in this market deserve an honest accounting.
The western suburbs remain competitive. Inventory in Naperville was running around 1.2 months of supply earlier this spring, well below the five to six months that signals a balanced market. According to the DePaul University Institute for Housing Studies, in its 2026 forecast published through Illinois REALTORS, Chicago-area closed home sales are projected to rise 5.1% this year with median prices up nearly 5%. Demand is real, and buyers are active.
First-time buyers have a particularly steep path. Entry-level homes move quickly and often with multiple offers. Buyers who need the most affordable price points face the least inventory. That's a structural problem that improving rates alone doesn't fix.
Illinois property taxes are also a factor that doesn't get enough weight in national affordability conversations. They're among the highest in the country and add meaningfully to the monthly cost of homeownership in DuPage and Will counties. A buyer who falls in love with Naperville's schools and community can't run the numbers without factoring taxes into the full picture.
None of that is meant to discourage anyone. It's meant to make sure the conversation is a real one.
The buyers we're hearing from most often right now aren't newcomers to the idea of buying. They're people who ran the numbers seriously at some point in 2023 or 2024, decided it didn't work, and kept renting. Some of them are surprised to find that 2026 looks different.
The payment that stopped them before is no longer the payment they'd be making today. That shift, modest as it might sound in percentage terms, has a real effect on what's possible month to month.
Teresa Ryan has been helping buyers and sellers navigate Naperville and the western suburbs for more than 25 years. The question she's asking buyers who've been on the sidelines is simple: when did you last actually run the numbers? Because if the answer is 2023 or 2024, the inputs have changed enough to make that exercise worth repeating.
If you're curious what the current picture looks like for your situation in Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Glen Ellyn, Aurora, Plainfield, Bolingbrook, or Lisle, reach out to the Ryan Hill Group team. The conversation starts with the numbers and works from there.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a home in Naperville, Illinois?
That question has a different answer for everyone because it depends on your financial situation, how long you plan to stay, and what you're trying to accomplish. What the data shows is that market conditions have improved meaningfully. The NAR Housing Affordability Index reached 113.7 in March 2026, up significantly from 104.2 a year earlier. Mortgage rates are lower than their recent peak. Wage growth has outpaced home price appreciation nationally. Whether those conditions line up with your personal finances is the conversation worth having with a local buyer's agent.
How much have mortgage rates dropped in 2026?
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.52% as of June 11, 2026, compared to 6.84% at the same point in 2025. Rates briefly fell below 6% at the end of February 2026, the first time that had happened in more than three years. The improvement from the peak rates of 7% and above in 2023 and 2024 is what's making a material difference in monthly payments for buyers today.
What is the median home price in Naperville in 2026?
According to MRED InfoSparks data, the median price for a detached single-family home in Naperville reached $700,000 in May 2026, with year-over-year growth of 0.9%. That near-flat appreciation, combined with rising incomes and lower rates, is what makes current conditions more accessible than they've been in recent years for buyers in this market.
Are home prices going to drop in the Chicago western suburbs?
The DePaul University Institute for Housing Studies 2026 housing forecast, published through Illinois REALTORS, projects Chicago metro home prices to rise approximately 5% this year. Statewide, the projection is 3.4% appreciation. Neither forecast points toward a meaningful price decline. The western suburbs in particular have shown consistent demand and limited inventory, both of which support stable to rising prices.
What does the NAR Housing Affordability Index actually measure?
The NAR Housing Affordability Index measures whether a typical American family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage on the median-priced home nationally. A score of 100 means they earn exactly enough to qualify. Scores above 100 mean they earn more than the qualifying threshold. The index reached 113.7 in March 2026, up from 104.2 a year prior, reflecting the improvement from falling rates, rising incomes, and moderating price growth.
How should I figure out what I can actually afford in Naperville?
Start with a current pre-qualification through a lender, ideally one who works regularly in the western suburbs and understands DuPage and Will County property tax structures. The mortgage payment is only part of what you'll owe each month. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, and HOA fees, where applicable, all affect what "affordable" actually means in this market. The Ryan Hill Group team can walk you through the full monthly cost picture for specific price ranges and neighborhoods before you ever write an offer.
(Last updated: June 18, 2026)
Sources: NAR Research Update (April 2026), Freddie Mac PMMS (June 11, 2026), MRED InfoSparks (May 2026), Illinois REALTORS / DePaul IHS 2026 Forecast
Teresa Ryan, Managing Broker (Lic. #471.003290)
Ryan Hill Group | Century 21 Circle 1288 Rickert Dr, Suite 300, Naperville, IL 60540
Cell: (630) 276-7575 (Call or Text Me!)
Website: ryanhillgroup.com
Email: [email protected]
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